Intermittent demand forecasting for aircraft inventories: a study of Brazilian’s Boeing 737NG aircraft´s spare parts management

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v27i2.1600

Palavras-chave:

Demanda intermitente, Boeing 737NG, Peças sobressalentes, Manutenção aeronáutica.

Resumo

Este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar cinco métodos de previsão para demanda intermitente usando uma série histórica de consumo de peças sobressalentes da aeronave 737 Next Generation, fabricado pela Boeing, da maior frota aérea brasileira gerenciada pela VRG Airline Company S/A. Os métodos de Winter, Croston, Single Exponential Smoothing, Weight Moving Average e Método de Distribuição de Poisson foram testados em um histórico de 53 peças sobressalentes e cada uma delas possui um histórico de demanda de trinta e seis meses (janeiro de 2013 a dezembro de 2015). Os resultados mostraram que os métodos Weight Moving Average, Distribuição de Poisson e Croston apresentaram os melhores ajustes. Além disso, observou-se que a maior parte das demandas por peças sobressalentes apresentaram um padrão smooth ao contrário do resultado obtido pelo estudo de Ghobbar and Friend (2003) que apresentou um padrão lumpy. Por outro lado, tem-se que o Método de Winter apresentou-se como o de pior ajuste em ambos os estudos. Conclui-se que os métodos de Weight Moving Average e Distribuição de Poisson são os mais adequados para avaliar a demanda intermitente para o caso da VRG Airline Company S/A.

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Biografia do Autor

Jersone Tasso Moreira Silva, Universidade FUMEC Programa de Mestrado e Doutorado em Administração

Programa de Mestrado e Doutorado em Administração

Luiz Henrique Santos, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais

Departamento de Engenharia Aeronáutica

Alexandre Teixeira Dias, Universidade FUMEC

Programa de Mestrado e Doutorado em Administração

Hugo Ferreira Braga Tadeu, Fundação Dom Cabral

Núcleo de Gestão da Inovação e Produtividade

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Publicado

31-08-2019

Como Citar

Silva, J. T. M., Santos, L. H., Dias, A. T., & Tadeu, H. F. B. (2019). Intermittent demand forecasting for aircraft inventories: a study of Brazilian’s Boeing 737NG aircraft´s spare parts management. TRANSPORTES, 27(2), 102–116. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v27i2.1600

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