Geração de viagens de carga para edifícios em construção: uma análise comparativa entre regressão linear e regressão linear generalizada

Autores

  • Leise Kelli de Oliveira Federal University of Minas Gerais, Minas Gerais – Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4756-4183
  • Rafael Tagliatti Herédia Federal University of Minas Gerais, Minas Gerais – Brazil
  • Bruno Vieira Bertoncini Federal University of Ceará, Ceará – Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1434-1960
  • Renata Lúcia Magalhães de Oliveira Federal Center for Technological Education of Minas Gerais, Minas Gerais – Brazil

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v28i5.1885

Palavras-chave:

Modelos de geração de viagens de carga. Edifícios em construção. Regressão linear. Regressão linear generalizada. Análise comparativa.

Resumo

A estimativa do número de viagens geradas por uma empresa é parte essencial do processo de modelagem da demanda de carga. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo compara modelos de viagens de carga para edifícios em construção (BUC) estimados por regressão linear generalizada e regressão linear, em um estudo de caso para Belo Horizonte. As principais contribuições deste artigo estão relacionadas aos modelos para estimar viagens de carga para BUC, a verificação das premissas de linearidade dos modelos lineares e a comparação de diferentes técnicas de modelagem para oa geração de viagens de carga. As suposições de linearidade permitiram avaliar a confiabilidade dos resultados dos modelos de regressão linear. Os resultados indicam que os modelos com melhor acurácia na previsão de viagens de carga ao BUC são os modelos lineares que utilizam a área como variável explicativa.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Leise Kelli de Oliveira, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Minas Gerais – Brazil

Departamento de Engenharia de Transportes e Geotecnia

Referências

Aditjandra, P.T., Galatioto, F., Bell, M.C., and T.H. Zunder (2016) Evaluating the impacts of urban freight traffic: application of micro-simulation at a large establishment. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, v.16, n.1, p.4-22. https://doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2016.16.1.3110

Akaike, H. (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, v.19, n.6, p.716-723. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705

Alho, A.R. and J.A. Silva (2014a) Freight-Trip Generation Model: Predicting Urban Freight Weekly Parking Demand from Retail Establishment Characteristics. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2411, p.45-54. https://doi.org/10.3141/2411-06

Alho, A.R. and J.A. Silva (2014b) The Development and Application of an Establishment-based Freight Survey: revealing retail establishments’ characteristics, goods ordering and delivery processes for the city of Lisbon. In TRB 2014 Annual Meeting, Washington, US.

Alho, A.R. and J.A. Silva (2015) Lisbon’s Establishment-based Freight Survey: revealing retail establishments’ characteristics, goods ordering and delivery processes. Eur. Transp. Res. Rev., v.7, n.16, p. 1-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12544-015-0163-7

Alho, A.R. and J.A. Silva (2017) Modeling retail establishments’ freight trip generation: a comparison of methodologies to predict total weekly deliveries. Transportation, v.44, p.1195-1212. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9670-6

Arlot, S. and A. Celise (2010) A survey of cross-validation procedures for model selection. Statistics Survey, v.10, p.40-79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-ss054

Belo Horizonte (2018) Relatório de projetos de edificações aprovados. https://prefeitura.pbh.gov.br/politica-urbana/regulacao-urbana/relatorios/edificacoes

Boarnet, M.G., Hong, A., and R. Santiago-Bartolomei (2017) Urban spatial structure, employment subcenters, and freight travel. Journal of Transport Geography, v.60, p.267-276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.03.007

Breusch, T.S. and A.R. Pagan (1979) A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation. Econometrica, v.47, n.5, p.1287-1294. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1911963

Burnham, K.P. and D.R. Anderson (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretical Approach. Springer: New York.

Campbel, S., Jaller, M., Sánchez-Díaz, I., Holguín-Veras, J., and C.T. Lawson (2012) Comparison between industrial classification systems in freight trip generation (FTG) modeling. In 91rd TRB Annual Meeting, Washington, US.

Campos, V.B.G. and I.C.B. Melo (2004) Análysis de la demanda de transporte de carga en area urbana bajo el punto de vista de la production y de la atracción de viajes. In VI Congreso de Ingenieria del Transporte, Zaragoza, Spain.

Campos, V.B.G., D’Agosto, M.A., Cruz, I., and C.D. Souza (2012) Polos Geradores de Viagens de Carga. In: Portugal, L. S. (Org.) Polos Geradores de Viagens Orientados a Qualidade de Vida e Ambiental: Modelos e Taxas de Geração de Viagens. Inter-ciência: Rio de Janeiro.

Canty, A. and B. Ripley (2017) boot: Bootstrap Functions. Disponível em https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=boot

CBIC (2018) PIB Brasil e Construção Civil. Câmara Brasileira da Indústria da Construção. Data from August of 2018. http://www.cbicdados.com.br/menu/pib-e-investimento/pib-brasil-e-construcao-civil

Comi, A., Site, P.D., Fillipi, F., and A. Nuzzolo (2012) Urban Freight Transport Demand Modelling: a State of the Art. European Transport Trasporti Europei, v.51, n.7.

Davison, A.C. (2001) Biometrika Centenary: Theory and General Methodology. Biometrika, v.88, p.13-52. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/88.1.13

EuroStat (2018) Construction production (volume) index overview. Data from March 2018. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Construction_production_(volume)_index_overview

Ferreira, B.L.G. and M.A.V. Silva (2016) Truck trips in urban areas and its relation to socioeconomic variables. Revista Gestão da Produção Operações e Sistemas, v.11, n.4, p.197-212. https://doi.org/10.15675/gepros.v11i4.1566

Frasco, M. (2018) Package ‘Metrics”: Evaluation Metrics for Machine Learning. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/Metrics/Metrics.pdf

Gasparini, A., Campos, V.B.G., and M.A. D’Agosto (2010) Modelos para estimativa da demanda de viagens de veículos de carga para supermercados e shopping-centers Transportes, v.18, n.1, p.58-65. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v18i1.388

Gonçalves, F.S., Lemos, D.S.C.P.S., Kneib, E.C., and L.S. Portugal (2012) Caracterização dos Polos Geradores de Viagens. In: Portugal, L. S. (Org.). Polos Geradores de Viagens Orientados a Qualidade de Vida e Ambiental: Modelos e Taxas de Geração de Viagens. Interciência: Rio de Janeiro, p. 3-41.

González-Feliu, J. and C. Peris-Plab (2017) Impacts of retailing attractiveness on freight and shopping trip attraction rates. Research in Transportation Business & Management, v.24, p.49-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2017.07.004

González-Feliu, J., Sánchez-Díaz, I., and C. Ambrosini (2015) Aggregation level, variability and linear hypotheses for urban delivery generation models. In Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting, Washington.

Günay, G., Ergün, G., and I. Gökaşar (2016) Conditional Freight Trip Generation modeling. Journal of Transport Geography, v.54, p.102-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.05.013

Holguín-Veras, J., Sánchez-Díaz, I., Lawson, C.T., Jaller, M., Campbell, S., Levinson, H.S., and H.-S. Shin (2013) Transferability of Freight Trip Generation Models. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2379, p.1-8. https://doi.org/10.3141/2379-01

Holguín-Veras, J., Jaller, M., Destro, L., Ban, S., Lawson, C., and H.S. Levinson (2011) Freight Generation, Freight Trip Genera-tion, and Perils of Using Constant Trip Rates. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2224, p.68-81. https://doi.org/10.3141/2224-09

Hothorn, T., Zeileis, A., Farebrother, R.W., Cummins, C., Millo, G., and M. Mitchell (2018) lmtest: Testing Linear Regression Mod-els. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=lmtest

Hurvich, C.M. and C.-L. Tsai (1995) Model Selection for Extended Quasi-Likelihood Models in Small Samples. Biometrics, v. 51, p. 1077-1084. https://doi.org/10.2307/2533006

Hyndman, R.J. and A.B. Koehler (2006) Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, v.22, n.4, p.679-688. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001

Iding, M.H.E., Meester, W.J., and L.A. Tavasszy (2002) Freight trip generation by firms. In 42nd European Congress of the Regional Science Association, Dortmund, Germany.

Jaller, M., Sánchez-Díaz, I., and J. Holguín-Veras (2015b) Identifying Freight Intermediaries: Implications for Modeling of Freight Trip Generation. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2478, p.48-56. https://doi.org/10.3141/2478-06

Jaller, M., Sánchez-Díaz, I., Holguín-Veras, J., and C.T. Lawson (2014) Area based freight trip generation models. In Transpor-tation Research Board (TRB) 93rd Annual Meeting, Washington, US.

Jaller, M., Wang, X., and J. Holguín-Veras (2015a) Large urban freight traffic generators: Opportunities for city logistics initia-tives. Journal of Transport and Land Use, v.8, n.1, p.1-17.

http://dx.doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2015.406

James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., and R. Tibshirani (2017) ISLR: Data for an Introduction to Statistical Learning with Applica-tions in R. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ISLR

Kulpa, T. (2014) Freight truck trip generation modeling at regional level. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, v. 111, p. 197-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.01.052

Lawson, C.T., Holguín-Veras, J., Sánchez-Diaz, I., Jaller, M., Campbell, S., and E.L. Powers (2012) Powers Estimated Generation of Freight Trips Based on Land Use. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2269, p.65-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2269-08

Lim, H., Chin, S.M., Hwang, H.-L., and L.D. Han (2017) Incorporating Information Complexity into Regression-Based Freight Generation Model Selection. In Transportation Research Board (TRB) 97th Annual Meeting, Washington, US.

Maia, A.G. (2017) Econometria: conceitos e aplicações. Editora Saint Paul: São Paulo.

McCullagh, P. and J.A. Nelder (1989) Generalized Linear Models. Chapman and Hall: London; New York.

Nuzzolo, A., Crisalli, U., and A. Comi. (2012) A delivery approach modelling for urban freight restocking. Journal of Civil Engi-neering and Architecture, v.6, n.3, p.251-267. http://dx.doi.org/10.17265/1934-7359/2012.03.001

Oliveira, L.K., Silva, A.S.S., Tolentino, A.C.M., Rachid, A.H.F.S., Bertoncini, B.V., Lima, J.H., Bracarense, L.S.F.P., and R.L.M. Oliveira (2018) Análise comparativa de técnicas de modelagem da geração de viagens de carga. Anais do XXXII Congresso Nacional de Ensino e Pesquisa em Transportes, Gramado, Brazil.

Oliveira, L.K., Nóbrega, R.A.A., Ebias, D.G., and B.G.S. Corrêa (2017) Analysis of Freight Trip Generation Model for Food and Beverage in Belo Horizonte (Brazil). Region, v.4, n.1, p.17-30. http://dx.doi.org/10.18335/region.v4i1.102

Oliveira, L.K., Oliveira, R.L.M, Ramos, C.M.F., and D.G. Ebias (2016) Modelo de geração de viagens de carga em áreas urbanas: um estudo para bares, restaurantes e supermercados. Transportes, v.2, n.24, p.53-67. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v24i2.1058

Reis, P.I.A.M., Bracarense, L.S.F.P., and L.K. Oliveira (2018) Geração de viagens de veículos de carga por supermercados: Estudo aplicado a Palmas-TO. Anais do XXXII Congresso Nacional de Pesquisa e Ensino em Transportes. ANPET, Gramado, Brazil.

Rudani, H.R., Patel, V.F., and H.K. Dave (2017) Development of trip generation model for goods movement of Gozaria and Visnagar G.I.D.C. International Journal of Advance Engineering and Research Development, v.4, n.4, p.923-926

Sánchez-Días, I. (2017) Modeling urban freight generation: A study of commercial establishments’ freight needs. Transporta-tion Research Part A, v.102, p.3-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2016.06.035

Silva, M.R. and J. Waisman (2007) Cargas urbanas: estudo exploratório sobre a geração de viagens de caminhões em bares e restaurantes. Anais do 16 Congresso Brasileiro de Transporte e Trânsito, Maceió, Brazil.

Statista (2018) Value added of the construction industry as a share of gross domestic product in the U.S. from 2007 to 2017. https://www.statista.com/topics/974/construction/

Stevenson, W. J. (1981) Estatística aplicada à administração. Editora Harbra: São Paulo.

Washington, S., Karlaftis, F., and M. Mannering (2011) Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC: Boca Raton.

Wee, B.V. and D. Banister (2016) How to Write a Literature Review Paper? Transport Reviews, v.36, n.2, p.278-288. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2015.1065456

Zhang, D. (2018) Package ‘rsq’: R-squared and related measures. https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/rsq/rsq.pdf

Downloads

Publicado

15-12-2020

Como Citar

de Oliveira, L. K., Herédia, R. T., Bertoncini, B. V., & de Oliveira, R. L. M. (2020). Geração de viagens de carga para edifícios em construção: uma análise comparativa entre regressão linear e regressão linear generalizada. TRANSPORTES, 28(5), 28–42. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v28i5.1885

Edição

Seção

Artigos