CALIBRAÇÃO DO MODELO SEMI-COMPENSATÓRIO DE ESCOLHA MODAL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v2i1.330Abstract
Dois são os objetivos deste trabalho: o primeiro e apresentar uma maneira de calibrar o modelo Semi-compensatório do comportamento de escolha do usuário de transporte de passageiros, e o segundo, relatar um resultado preliminar de calibração. Esse novo modelo foi concebido e desenvolvido a partir do pressuposto de que a escolha do meio de locomoção se faz através da avaliação das utilidades intrínsecas das alternativas disponíveis e das utilidades atribuídas às quantias que se "desembolsam" em cada alternativa. A forma não convencional do modelo (não-compensatório e determinístico) requereu a concepção e o desenvolvimento de um processo para a sua calibração: uma aplicação da técnica de maximização da verossimilhança. Esse processo foi aplicado a dados referentes a um grupo de 95 pessoas (50 funcionários da Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos-USP e 45 funcionários do DER-SP, Regional de Campinas). O resultado da calibração mostrou-se satisfatório, pois aproximadamente 85% das escolhas preditas pelo modelo calibrado coincidiram com as escolhas realizadas pelo grupo estudado.
Abstract:
There are two objectives in this paper: the first one is to present an alternative way to calibrate travel behaviour models with semi-compensatory structures; the second one is to analyse some preliminary results of a calibration exercise. This new model has been developed based upon the following assumption: the choice of transport mode is made on the basis of the assessment of the intrinsic utilities of available transport alternatives and the utilities attached to the amount of money needed to travel in each of these alternatives. The non-conventional structure of the model (non-compensatory and deterministic) has required the conception and development of a calibration process: an application of the maximum likelihood estimation technique. This process has been applied to a data base which consisted of information obtained from a group of 95 users (50 of them were staff of the São Carlos Engineering School and the remaining were staff of the São Paulo State Highway Department). The calibration result was considered satisfactory as approximately 85% of the choices predicted by the model has coincided with the observed ones.
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