Modelos de geração de viagem para pólos geradores de viagens de cargas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v18i1.396Abstract
Resumo: A implantação de um empreendimento que tenha potencial de produzir ou atrair uma quantidade significativa de viagens de cargas (PGV Carga) pode contribuir para o agravamento dos problemas de tráfego já existentes ou ocasionar problemas não previstos em uma região. Conhecer o volume de viagens geradas e seus modelos de previsão pode ajudar a minimizar tais problemas. Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar o perfil dos modelos de geração de viagens de carga que possam ser utilizados para subsidiar os estudos sobre PGV Carga. Foi realizada uma revisão bibliográfica nacional e internacional (25 estudos). Verificou-se que predomina o uso de taxas e de regressões lineares simples e múltiplas, nas quais se obtêm coeficientes de determinação (R²) iguais ou maiores que 0,7.
Abstract: The deployment of an enterprise that has the potential to produce or attract a significant amount of freight travel, may contribute to the worsening traffic problems that already exist or cause unanticipated problems in a region. Knowing the volume of trips generated and their forecasting models can help minimize such problems. This paper aims to present a profile of freight trip generation models that can be used to subsidize research on such enterprises. We performed a national and international literature review (25 studies). It was found the predominant use of taxes and simple and multiple linear regressions, where we obtain coefficients of determination (R²) equal to or greater than 0.7.
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