Effects of fare variation on bus transit demand in Fortaleza considering spatial, temporal, and socioeconomic attributes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58922/transportes.v33.e3033Keywords:
Public transportation demand. Tariff elasticity of demand. Income elasticity of passengers. Bus demand decline.Abstract
Public bus transportation in Brazil has been facing a crisis, possibly stemming from the vicious cycle of declining demand. To understand this phenomenon, the scientific community suggests analyzing the relationship between fare and bus demand. However, few studies analyze how spatial, temporal, and socioeconomic characteristics may influence this causal relationship and, in general, do not rely on a priori models that theoretically support causality hypotheses, which can lead to biases in the analysis. Thus, this study seeks to examine the relationship between fare and demand based on a conceptual representation of the determinants that may influence it, grounded in a literature review. Therefore, a mental map is proposed to represent the causality hypotheses regarding the immediate-, medium-, and long-term effects of fare changes. Based on the available data, a causal diagram is developed to assess the direct and indirect effects of these variations over time, estimated through panel data regressions while controlling for spatial, temporal, and socioeconomic factors using fixed effects.
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