Use of the HDM-4 in feasibility studies for highway concessions: traffic influence on maintenance cycles

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58922/transportes.v33.e3100

Keywords:

HDM-4, traffic, road concessions

Abstract

Traffic variables and subgrade bearing capacity are key factors in the mechanistic-empirical design of flexible pavements. However, the lack of accurate data makes estimating traffic loads a challenging task. This study analyzes the influence of traffic on maintenance needs and the service life of road pavements, using HDM-4 performance prediction models applied to Brazilian highway concessions. It also evaluates the impacts of the 2021 Weight Regulation Law on pavement performance and intervention cycles. Nine pavement structures were analyzed under different traffic and subgrade conditions, monitoring the evolution of roughness and cracking over a 30-year concession period. A scenario considering overloads allowed by Law No. 14.229/2021 was included for comparison. Based on these results, a preliminary economic analysis was carried out, estimating cumulative maintenance costs by type of intervention. The results indicate that higher traffic volumes significantly accelerate pavement deterioration and that recent legal changes may increase maintenance costs by up to 25%, compromising structural quality. Therefore, the study highlights the importance of proper planning and well-designed interventions in the face of growing traffic and regulatory changes to ensure the performance and safety of concessioned pavements.

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References

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Published

2025-10-03

How to Cite

Cordeiro Moreira Prates, T., & Yukio Suzuki, C. (2025). Use of the HDM-4 in feasibility studies for highway concessions: traffic influence on maintenance cycles. Transportes, 33, e3100. https://doi.org/10.58922/transportes.v33.e3100

Issue

Vol. 33 (2025)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Thisbe Cordeiro Moreira Prates, Carlos Yukio Suzuki

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