Urban mobility scenarios: a review of the future

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58922/transportes.v33.e3131

Keywords:

Scenario Building, Sustainable Mobility, Mobility Trends

Abstract

This study analyzed urban mobility perspectives based on research found in the literature. The objective was to identify trends and actions prone to promote a more sustainable mobility future. To this end, 24 studies published between 2014 and 2025 were selected, resulting in 88 distinct scenarios. The studies indicate that technologies such as electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and shared mobility are promising but face economic and regulatory challenges. However, established solutions, such as promotion of public transportation and cycling, remain essential. The main trends observed were technological development, with autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence; investments in public transportation and reducing the need for commuting; and environmental and social impacts, including inequality in mobility access and climate change. The study concluded that there are several major trends and strategic actions that are likely to shape the future of urban mobility.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Amanda Christine Gallucci Silva, Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná

Engenheira Civil formada pela Universidade Federal do Paraná. Mestre em engenharia geotécnica. Professora da disciplina de transportes. Tem interesse na área de infraestrutúra, geotecnia e impactos ambientais.

References

Álvarez-Antelo, D.; P. López-Muñoz; L. Llases et al. (2025) Towards a sustainable mobility lifestyle: exploring the flight to rail shift through model-based behavioural change scenarios. Ecological Economics, v. 230, p. 108498. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108498. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108498

Aulicino, A.L. (2002). Identificação de Problemas Potenciais na Construção de Cenários e na Formulação de Estratégias em uma Organização: Proposição de um Método: um Estudo de Caso. Thesis (master’s degree). University of São Paulo. São Paulo, SP. DOI: 10.11606/D.12.2002.tde-12092006-155128. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2002.tde-12092006-155128

Baera, E.J.; L. Alfheim; G. Lyons et al. (2025) Using scenarios to address uncertainty in planning for sustainable mobility in small and medium-sized Norwegian cities. European Transport Research Review, v. 17, n. 1, p. 18. DOI: 10.1186/s12544-025-00710-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-025-00710-3

Banister, D.; R. Hickman and D. Stead (2007) Looking Over the Horizon: Visioning and Backcasting. In Perrels, A., V. Himanen and M. Lee-Gosselin (eds.) Building Blocks for Sustainable Transport: Obstacles, Trends, Solutions. England: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, p. 25–53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/9780857245168-003

Barrella, E. and A.A. Amekudzi (2011) Backcasting for sustainable transportation planning. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v. 2242, n. 1, p. 29-36. DOI: 10.3141/2242-04. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3141/2242-04

Brenden, A.P.; I. Kristoffersson and L.-G. Mattsson (2017). Future Scenarios for Self-Driving Vehicles in Sweden. Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology.

Buarque, S.C. (2003) Metodologia e Técnicas de Construção de Cenários Globais e Regionais. Brasília: Ipea. Available at: <http://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/2865> (accessed 07/14/2025).

Canitez, F. (2019) Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: a socio-technical transition perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 141, p. 319-29. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.01.008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.01.008

Cascetta, E. (2014) Future scenarios of urban mobility and their sustainability. E3S Web of Conferences, v. 2, p. 03002. DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/20140203002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20140203002

Colin, L.; B. Cedric; C. Corinne et al. (2024) From narratives to indicator-based future scenarios of urban mobility. Futures, v. 162, p. 103431. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103431. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103431

Denney, A.S. and R. Tewksbury (2013) How to write a literature review. Journal of Criminal Justice Education, v. 24, n. 2, p. 218-34. DOI: 10.1080/10511253.2012.730617. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10511253.2012.730617

Dia, H. (2019) Rethinking urban mobility: unlocking the benefits of vehicle electrification. In Newton, P.; D. Prasad; A. Sproul et al. (eds.) Decarbonising the Built Environment. Singapore: Springer Singapore, p. 83–98. DOI: 10.1007/978-981-13-7940-6_5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7940-6_5

Godet, M. (2006) Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). London: Economica.

Hickman, R. and D. Banister (2007) Transport and Reduced Energy Consumption: What Role Can Urban Planning Play? Oxford: University of Oxford.

Huss, W.R. and E.J. Honton (1987) Scenario planning - what style should you use? Long Range Planning, v. 20, n. 4, p. 21-29. DOI: 10.1016/0024-6301(87)90152-X. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(87)90152-X

Kane, M. and J. Whitehead (2017) How to ride transport disruption – a sustainable framework for future urban mobility. Australian Plants, v. 54, n. 3, p. 177-85. DOI: 10.1080/07293682.2018.1424002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/07293682.2018.1424002

Kaufmann, V. and E. Ravalet (2016) From weak signals to mobility scenarios: a prospective study of France in 2050. Transportation Research Procedia, v. 19, p. 18-32. DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2016.12.064. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.12.064

Keseru, I.; T. Coosemans and C. Macharis (2019) Building scenarios for the future of transport in Europe: the Mobility4EU approach. In Müller, B. and G. Meyer (eds.) Towards User-Centric Transport in Europe. Cham: Springer, p. 15–30. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-99756-8_2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99756-8_2

Lyons, G.; C. Rohr, A. Smith et al. (2021) Scenario planning for transport practitioners. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, v. 11, p. 100438. DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2021.100438. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100438

Mara Dorigati, T. and C. Krupp Luz (2020) Três cenários para a relação entre trabalho e gênero frente à quarta revolução industrial. Revista da Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, v. 47, n. 2. DOI: 10.14393/RFADIR-v47n2a2019-49063. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14393/RFADIR-v47n2a2019-49063

Marletto, G. (2014) Car and the city: socio-technical transition pathways to 2030. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 87, p. 164-78. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.013

Meerow, S. and J.P. Newell (2019) Urban resilience for whom, what, when, where, and why. Urban Geography, v. 40, n. 3, p. 309-29. DOI: 10.1080/02723638.2016.1206395. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02723638.2016.1206395

Melkonyan, A.; T. Gruchmann; F. Lohmar et al. (2022) Decision support for sustainable urban mobility: a case study of the Rhine-Ruhr area. Sustainable Cities and Society, v. 80, p. 103806. DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2022.103806. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.103806

Melkonyan, A.; J. Koch; F. Lohmar et al. (2020) Integrated urban mobility policies in metropolitan areas: A system dynamics approach for the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region in Germany. Sustainable Cities and Society, v. 61, p. 102358. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102358. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102358

Milakis, D.; M. Snelder; B. Van Arem et al. (2017) Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: scenarios for 2030 and 2050. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. DOI: 10.18757/EJTIR.2017.17.1.3180. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18757/EJTIR.2017.17.1.3180

Miskolczi, M.; D. Földes; A. Munkácsy et al. (2021) Urban mobility scenarios until the 2030s. Sustainable Cities and Society, v. 72, p. 103029. DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103029. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103029

Navarro-Ligero, M.L. and L.M. Valenzuela-Montes (2016) A tool for the assessment of urban mobility scenarios in climate change mitigation: an application to the Granada’s LRT Project. Transportation Research Procedia, v. 19, p. 364-79. DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2016.12.095. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.12.095

Nijkamp, P. and K. Kourtit (2013) The “New Urban Europe”: global challenges and local responses in the urban century. European Planning Studies, v. 21, n. 3, p. 291-315. DOI: 10.1080/09654313.2012.716243. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2012.716243

Nikitas, A.; I. Kougias; E. Alyavina et al. (2017) How can autonomous and connected vehicles, electromobility, BRT, hyperloop, shared use mobility and mobility-as-a-service shape transport futures for the context of smart cities. Urban Science, v. 1, n. 4, p. 36. DOI: 10.3390/urbansci1040036. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci1040036

WHO (2021) Plano Global Década de Ação pela Segurança no Trânsito. Geneva: World Health Organization. Available at: <http://who.int/pt/publications/m/item/global-plan-for-the-decade-of-action-for-road-safety-2021-2030> (accessed 10/8/2025).

Paul, A.; U. Schmalz; A. Cook et al. (2023) Future multimodal mobility scenarios within Europe. Transportation Research Procedia, v. 72, p. 1869-76. DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2023.11.665. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2023.11.665

Porter, M.E. (1989) Competitive Advantage. New York: Free Press.

Ringland, G. (2006) Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future (2nd ed.). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rojas-Rivero, A.; M. Navarro-Ligero; M.E. López-Lambas et al. (2025) Archetypes of collaboration within urban transport system scenarios. Futures, v. 171, p. 103628. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103628. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103628

Spickermann, A.; V. Grienitz and H.A. Von Der Gracht (2014) Heading towards a multimodal city of the future: Multi-stakeholder scenarios for urban mobility. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 89, p. 201-21. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.036. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.036

Störmer, E.; B. Truffer; D. Dominguez et al. (2009) The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning: lessons from regional infrastructure foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 76, n. 9, p. 1150-62. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.008

Sunitiyoso, Y.; A. Wicaksono; N.F. Pambudi et al. (2023) Future of mobility in Jakarta metropolitan area: a multi-stakeholder scenario planning. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, v. 19, p. 100810. DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2023.100810. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100810

Tori, S.; G. Te Boveldt and I. Keseru (2023) Building scenarios for urban mobility in 2030: The combination of cross-impact balance analysis with participatory stakeholder workshops. Futures, v. 150, p. 103160. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103160. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103160

Tori, S.; G. Te Boveldt; I. Keseru et al. (2023) Brussels mobility in 2050: Participatory mixed-method scenario building to explore alternative futures. Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect, v. 22, p. 100919. DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2023.100919. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100919

TomTom (2025) TomTom Traffic Index: When Cities Move, our World Moves Forward. Available at: <https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/> (accessed 7/7/2025).

Turner, N. (2008) Future-proofing your organisation. CEO Journal, v. 1. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292707260_Future-proofing_your_organisation (accessed 10/8/2025).

Vallet, F.; J. Puchinger; A. Millonig et al. (2020) Tangible futures: combining scenario thinking and personas - A pilot study on urban mobility. Futures, v. 117, p. 102513. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102513. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102513

Van Der Heijden, K. (2000) Scenarios and forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 65, n. 1, p. 31-6. DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00121-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00121-3

Xenou, E.; G. Ayfantopoulou; B. Royo et al. (2022) Methodology for consequence analysis of future mobility scenarios: the SPROUT framework. Future Transportation, v. 2, n. 2, p. 453-66. DOI: 10.3390/futuretransp2020025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp2020025

Yanmaz, O. and U. Asan (2024) A novel scenario planning approach considering criteria interaction in multi-criteria evaluation: an application to urban mobility. Decision Science Letters, v. 13, n. 2, p. 461-70. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2024.1.002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5267/j.dsl.2024.1.002

Zahraei, S.M.; J.H. Kurniawan and L. Cheah (2019) A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040. Foresight, v. 22, n. 1, p. 37-52. DOI: 10.1108/FS-05-2019-0044. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2019-0044

Zmud, J.; L. Ecola; P. Phleps et al. (2013) The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for the United States in 2030. Santa Monica: Rand Corporation. Available at: <https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR246/RAND_RR246.pdf> (accessed 10/8/2025).

Downloads

Published

2025-11-25

How to Cite

Gallucci Silva, A. C., Wons, L., & Cecy Gadda, T. M. (2025). Urban mobility scenarios: a review of the future. Transportes, 33, e3131. https://doi.org/10.58922/transportes.v33.e3131

Issue

Section

Articles